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The year 2022 is one in which China is expected to go through major political and economic change.
If the proposed reforms are successful, Chinese economic growth is likely to be stable and sustainable well into the future.
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China’s ruling party will likely again endorse Xi Jinping as the party secretary, which would mean China will have had the same President for more than 10 years at the 2023 National People’s Congress.
The government is expected to stick with its current policy of major economic reform. ANZ Research expects gross domestic product in China to grow by 4.6 per cent in 2022, which is a multi-year low.
But Xi’s focus on progressive change in different parts of the economy, social and environmental development means that GDP growth itself will be less important than previously.
Xi has proposed a policy called “common prosperity”, which involves more equitable distribution of resources and economic gains. Many sectors will be affected.
ANZ Research expects China to become more interventionist and increased regulation will be seen, particularly in the tech, education and energy intensive sectors, and even entertainment industries.
For China, the changes anticipated in 2022 bring many opportunities.
After an unprecedented 2021, next year will be a critical one for global markets. The post-COVID landscape is one of rapid technological change, a transformational shakeup of global trading orthodoxy and an increasing focus on sustainable business.
At ANZ Institutional, we aim to help our customers put themselves in the best possible position to take advantage of these forces. Our subject-matter experts provide thought leadership in a range of complex areas from across more than 30 markets.
As 2022 looms, we are asking our experts about the factors they see shaping markets and industry – and the opportunities and challenges within. We’ll be sharing the responses with you over the coming weeks.
Raymond Yeung is Chief Economist, Greater China at ANZ Research
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