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Much of the coverage on China’s outlook as we approach the new Lunar New Year has focussed on uncertainty and negativity. But there’s a possibility we see some policy and economic surprises out of China in 2025.
Talk of the potential economic impact of the tariff policies of the newly installed Republican administration in the United States continues - but that situation isn’t new to China. The economy dealt with such measures in President Donald Trump’s first term and adapted quickly.
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The 2025 Lunar New Year marks the zodiac year of the snake. While the snake may be interpreted in many cultures as negative and hazardous, in my culture, the snake embodies wisdom and flexibility.
The wisdom China carries from its previous experience with the Trump administration provides, in my view, upside risks to the export sector and supply chains - as well as the Chinese government’s efforts to boost domestic demand.
The year 2025 looms as another exciting one for businesses, with persistent inflation and geopolitical change creating a landscape of uncertainty and opportunity in the Asia-Pacific region.
The increasing speed of digitisation, dawn of the real-time economy, and shifting supply chains will all also have a role to play in shaping the macroeconomic environment.
At ANZ Institutional, we know business are looking to position themselves to take advantage of these trends.
As part of our Outlook 2025 series, we’re asking our subject-matter experts to provide insights into a range of complex areas from across close to 30 markets – helping you better understand how you can prepare for the New Year. We’ll be sharing the responses over the coming weeks.
ANZ Research expects the Chinese economy to grow by 4.3 per cent in 2025, with upside risks from policymakers willing to stimulate.
Consumption will be critical. Policy support aimed at stabilising the property market will be watched closely.
To our readers, stay positive and have a healthy and blessed year of the snake. Gong xi fa cai, Gung hay fat choy.
Raymond Yeung is Chief Economist, Greater China, ANZ
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